2024 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW: SCHEFFLER, MCILROY & KOEPKA HEADLINE

Scottie Scheffler- 2023 PGA-Golf Digest

How can you start a conversation about potential winners of the 2024 PGA Championship with anyone but Scottie Scheffler? The guy is the top-ranked player in the world and is coming to Valhalla having won four of his past five events, and finishing second by one shot in the one he didn’t win. Scheffler was close in 2023, when he closed with a 65 to share runner-up honors with Viktor Hovland, the eventual 2023 FedEx Cup winner. I suppose someone could argue that Scheffler hasn’t been the world’s best golfer over the past two years, but that person would probably also argue that rain isn’t wet. Scheffler’s 2024 results just scream dominance.

Bennett Scheffler- Instagram

But there are some potential factors besides playing against the other supreme talents on the PGA Tour to consider when assessing Scheffler’s chances to pocket this season’s second major. Scottie will have been a first-time father for just eight days when he tees it up on Thursday. Who knows what he’s been through since he sank the winning putt at the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town three weeks ago? Is his game still sharp? Is his mind still on golf? No way to answer such questions before his name is called on the first tee at Valhalla.

Scheffler- 2024 Masters-John-Angelillo-UPI.

Then, of course, we have to consider the lesser known “Masters Jinx.” Everyone knows about the “Masters Par-3 Jinx,” which claims that no one who wins the par-3 event wins that Green Jacket, but fewer probably know that the last player to win the Wannamaker Trophy after donning the Green Jacket was Jack Nicklaus in 1975, the second time he’d done so (also in 1963). Nicklaus is the only player to have claimed both in the same year since the tourney moved from match play to stroke play in 1958 (Were Scottie’s parents even born yet?). Tiger didn’t do it, Arnie, didn’t do it, none of the other greats have done it since PGA Championship stroke play was implemented. Yet, as spectacular as his two-year run has been, is Scheffler and his game in the rarified air as the GOAT, Jack Nickalaus? Guess we’ll get an inkling this weekend.

Rory McIlroy-2014 PGA-SkySports

Prior to Rory McIlroy’s triumph last weekend, I would have followed Scheffler with Brooks Koepka, but Rory’s back-to-back PGA Tour wins, and specifically his second nine last Sunday have made me reconsider. McIlroy won the PGA Championship in 2012 and 2014, the latter being his most recent major, which, by the way, was held at Valhalla. There is no doubt that he is seeking to end that 10-year major drought and he is coming off consecutive victories including last weekend’s Wells Fargo, where he closed with a 65, despite a meaningless double bogey on 18. Meaningless? Yes, he was smiling and chuckling after posting that double, and why not? He’d just carded two eagles and two birdies on the second nine to leave Xander Schauffele–whom he had trailed by two then walked down and bounced past in his five-shot win–wondering what could have been. Coincidentally, Rory’s win at the Wells Fargo was at Quail Hollow, another venue where he holds multiple wins (4). 

Rory at Wells Fargo 2024-Jim-Dedmon-USA Today

Rory’s credentials at the PGA are stellar. In addition to two wins, he holds the record for the most lopsided victory in PGA Championship history, claiming the Wannamaker by eight strokes over David Lynn (Who?) in 2012. I only wonder how McIlrory will weather the constant questions about his major championship drought, and how he’ll handle the presence of Scottie Scheffler if Scheffler is on his game. Scheffler hasn’t played in either of McIlroy’s recent wins. When relaxed and rolling, I’d put my money on Rory against anyone…and yes, that includes Scheffler. But relaxed and rolling hasn’t been McIlroy’s norm in the big moments at majors…except for that three-year span from 2011 – 2014 when he picked up four major titles (2 PGAs, US Open, and The Open Championship). My hope is that both Rory and Scottie will bring their A-games to Valhalla. If both do, I’d expect them both to be vying for the Wannamaker on the second nine on Sunday. What a treat that would be!

Brooks Koepka- 2019 PGA- Stuart Franklin-Getty

And how about Brooks Koepka chances, he who won the PGA in 2018, 2019, 2023 and was the runner-up at Phil Michelson’s historic win in 2021? We’re talking about a guy who won the Wannamaker three of the past six years and who was runner-up in a fourth! You simply cannot ignore that kind of success and he is coming off an early-May victory in Singapore and a top-ten finish in his previous outing, both on the LIV Tour. I’m not sure how much weight we can put on LIV tourney results, given the fields he’s competing against there, especially since his one foray onto the PGA Tour this season was a tie for 45^th at Augusta National. Then again, a win is a win, and there’s nothing like a win to bolster confidence, which is at least as important as your driver and putter in golf.

Brooks Koepka- 2018 PGA-Doug-Mills-NYT

Koepka has PGA Championship credentials that outweigh every other player in the tourney except Tiger Woods, who has four Wannamaker Trophies. In two of Koepka’s three wins (2018 & 2019), he equaled the record low score of 63 for the PGA Championship. Oh, and Brooks is one of only 20 players in professional golf history to have won five or more major championships, and is only one of three who are still active on tour…if you really consider Tiger active. Phil Michelson is the other. No, Koepka cannot be left out of the conversation of potential winners this weekend.

Xander Schauffele- Jim Dedmon-USA Today

I think Xander Schauffele must be considered among the favorites at Valhalla despite his collapse last weekend, zero major titles, and his historically so-so performances at the PGA Championship–his best finish a tie for 10^th in 2020. He has been knocking at the door of majors without an answer for some time now and he just might be due. He’s been second at major twice (2018 Open Championship and 2019 Masters), is the defending Olympic champion, and I believe he is the only player to have finished in the top 20 of eight straight majors. Schauffele has got to be fired up after giving up his lead to Rory on the back nine last Sunday, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he uses that fire as a springboard to his first major championship.

Jason Day-2015 PGA- Andrew Redington-Getty

There are other former PGA champions in the mix who might have something to say about the outcome on Sunday. I suspect the most likely of those to be in contention on Sunday is Jason Day. After a five-year drought, Jason won the AT&T Byron Nelson, took 2^nd at The Open Championship, and notched 8 top-ten finishes in 2023. Day has four top-ten finishes this season and finished tied for 4^th this past weekend. In our “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” world, it’s no surprise that Jason Day isn’t on many people’s radars as a potential 2024 Wannamaker Trophy lifter on Sunday. I mean, 2015 is ancient history, right? His win then seems to have faded fast in our rearview mirrors, so much so that we forget he boasts the lowest score in relation to par (-20) in PGA Championship history. When Day is healthy, he is as game and gritty as they come. I see him among the contenders on Sunday.

Colin Morikawa- 2020 PGA- Sports Illustrated

I just can’t count out Collin Morikawa, who has shown himself to be a big-stage player…at times. In his last 16 majors, he’s won the PGA Championship (2020), was the Champion Golfer of the Year at The Open Championship (2021), and finished in the top-20 eight other times. That includes ties for 4^th and 5^th at the 2021 and 2022 US Opens; as well as 5^th, 10^th, and tie-3^rd at Augusta in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively. Morikawa’s penchant for self-destruction gives me pause however. His tie for 3^rd at the 2024 Masters included double bogeys on holes 9 and 11 and a bogey on 18 as well. This past weekend, he played the final three holes +3 and in the tourney before that, the RBC Heritage, he played his final six holes +2. If Colin could curb his tendency to drop shots down the stretch as he repeatedly has lately while in contention, he’s a legit contender for the Wannamaker.

Justin Thomas- 2022 PGA- Getty Images

Justin Thomas is also a two-time winner, raising the Wannamaker in 2017 and 2022 and just might capture some magic to upset the applecart. “Justin who?” some might ask. Well, although JT’s results over the past two years don’t shine a bright light on his chances this weekend, he has been showing us glimpses of his former brilliance recently. He’s had three top-ten finishes this season, the latest being tie-5^th at the RBC Heritage in late April. When you consider that he carded just four top-ten finishes in official tour events all of last season, Thomas’ game is definitely on the rise. Longshot? Yes. Possible? Definitely.

Phil Michelson- 2021 PGA- David J. Phillip-AP

One of the two old-timers among the former winners that have to be mentioned regardless of their chances is Phil Michelson. Phil won in 2005 and 2021, his most recent win setting a record for being the oldest winner of the PGA Championship and the oldest winner of a golf major, period. Michelson was also the runner-up twice at the PGA, and one of those times was at Valhalla in 2014 when he fell to Rory McIlroy by one stroke. Phil hasn’t done much on the LIV Tour this year, his best finish is 9^th, which came at Jeddah in March. Neither before nor since has Phil cracked the top-ten this year in LIV competition. Still, can we count out this hall-of-famer who has gotten up off the canvas in the past to drop a haymaker on Father Time? Does anyone remember Phil shooting 65 in the final round of the 2023 Masters to finish tie-2^nd? I do. Age, shaky game, whatever, counting out one of the best that’s ever played, who is still healthy is not something I’ll be doing this year.

Tiger Woods- 2000 PGA- Brian Spurlock-USA Today

I did write “healthy” above, right? Well, even though I am pretty much counting this next former champion out, it’s only because Tiger Woods will probably never be “golf-healthy” again. That said, and although the odds of him winning are astronomical, I suppose there can’t be a professional golf tournament with Tiger Woods in the field, where we don’t acknowledge his presence and speculate on his chances. Despite Tiger having won a PGA Championship at Valhalla in the past and his being one of only two players to have won four Wannamaker trophies during the stroke-play era (Jack Nicklaus being the other with five), I don’t think he has the proverbial snowball’s chance at winning this weekend.

Potential Breakout Players

Ludwig Åberg- Sam Greenwood-Getty

Ludwig Åberg (pronounced "oh-berg") hasn’t done a whole lot of winning, but the golf word is high on his talent and this could be his breakout event. He’s gotten close twice already. The 24-year-old Åberg is in his rookie season and has five top-ten–including two runner-up– finishes in 10 tour starts, has missed no cuts, and is No.6 in the World Golf Rankings. One of those runner-up finishes was at the Masters where he finished tie-2^nd. Not bad for a rookie, eh? Åberg ranks 3^rd in total driving and 2^nd in proximity to the hole on approaches. His putting has yet to catch up with his long game– he’s ranked 112^th in overall putting, but if the flatstick gets hot…

Sahith Theegala- Getty

Sahith Theegala is another player I’ve got my eye on. Theegala has five top-ten finishes in 13 starts this season and two of those have been runner-up finishes. At the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town, Sahith finished second to Scottie Scheffler with a -3 final round (tying Scheffler’s final round score), while Åberg finished tie-10^th after a +1 final round. Theegala’s +8 total at last weekend’s Wells Fargo as well as missing the cut at the Zurich Classic with Will Zalatoris doesn’t bode well coming into Valhalla. However, if you examine Sahith’s performance pattern this season, you might beg to differ.  

Sahith Theegala- 2024 Wells Fargo- Jared C. Tilton-Getty

Theegala began the season with tie=2^nd at The Sentry, which he followed up with missing the cut at the Sony Open and a tie-64^th at the Farmers. He then finished in the top-20 at Pebble Beach and solo-5^th at the WM Phoenix Open. His next outing produced another mediocre performance at The Genesis (tie-37^th), before two top-ten finsihes at the Arnold Palmer (tie-6^th) and The Players (tie-9^th). Two more middling efforts at the Texas Children’s (tie-28^th) and the Masters (tie-45^th) preceded his solo-2^nd at the RBC, before the Zurich and Wells Fargo disappointments. The bottom line is that Theegala’s form waxes and wanes and he is due to be on-form for the PGA.

Byeong Hun An- Gregory Shamus-Getty

Speaking of potential breakout players who might be on form, I can’t exclude Byeong Hun An, who finished solo-3^rd at the Wells Fargo, tying Matt Hughes for the second-best closing round (66) with a clean card (3 birdies) on the second nine. That finish followed up his tie-4^th at the Byron Nelson, where he closed with another clean second nine with five birdies in seven holes.  An has 5 top-ten finishes in 13 events, including tying for 2^nd in a playoff loss to Grayson Murray at the Sony early this season. His 6^th-place standing in the FedEx Cup race heralds his ascendance and a win for An at Valhalla would not surprise me.

Okay, PGA Tour players are all so talented that any player who gets hot for four days can win any event. Regardless of who emerges with the Wannamaker, the various storylines and splendid form of the top players in the game practically guarantee that we’ll be talking about the 2024 PGA Championship for some time to come.