CAN XANDER SCHAUFFELE CLOSE AT THE 2024 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

Note: I’m leaving out the Zurich Classic and AT&T Pebble Beach because the former is a team event and the latter was called after three rounds due to weather.

Today’s subject is Xander Schauffele and closing the deal…or not. The last five minutes of a basketball game, the 9^th inning of a baseball game, the final two minutes of a football game are considered crunch time, and that is when the best of the best usually shine. In golf, the final day and the last nine holes of a tournament is where winners shine-unless you have a ridiculous 54-hole lead you’re just trying to protect.

Xander Schauffele-Jim Dedmon-USA Today

After watching Xander Schauffele come up short yet another time yesterday at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, I thought I’d take a look at how he does in final rounds compared to earlier rounds, and on second-nines versus first nines. We can blame this post on the commentators who continuously mentioned how close Schauffele has been to winning without closing the deal over the past two years. Yep, we’re talking about closing today, which is something the best in golf–and all sports for that matter–do better than most.

But before we get to Schauffele’s struggles in closing the deal, let’s be sure to mention that he is one of the best and most consistent players on the PGA Tour. Xander has finished in the top-ten eight times and has been the runner-up twice in the 10 events I’ve included for analysis here. I should probably note that coming in second to Scottie Scheffler–World No.1 and the hottest player on tour this year with 4 wins–at The Players Championship, and to Rory McIlroy–one of the most talented players since Tiger Woods and owner of 26 tour titles–yesterday at Wells Fargo is nothing to be ashamed of.

Anyway, before examining his failure to close for the past couple years, let me support my contention that Schauffele is one of the best and most consistent players on the PGA Tour. In addition to what he’s done thus far in 2024, his 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 seasons speak to his consistent exemplary play. Xander teed it up 23 times last season and finished in the top-10 in almost half of his starts (11). Of the 23 events he played, he finished in the top-25 18 times! That’s a whopping 72% of the time he’s finishing in the top-25. I don’t think we can say that of too many on the PGA Tour or any professional golf tour for that matter.

Xander Schauffele & Patrick Cantlay- Golf Week

Although he wasn’t quite as consistent during the 2021-2022 season, finishing in the top-ten fewer times (7) in 21 events than he has already in the 12 events he’s played this season, Schauffele won twice on his own and had a 3^rd win with Patrick Cantlay at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans two seasons ago. His last win was at the Genesis Scottish Open in July of 2022. The last time Schauffele missed a cut was the 2022 Masters.  

After yesterday’s runner-up finish, Xander is 2^nd in the FedEx Cup standings, 3^rd in the World Golf Ranking, and has made more than $23.5 million in less than two full years, with half of this season yet to play. Not too shabby, I’d say. Playing consistently great golf has not been a problem for Xander Schauffele, but closing out tourneys with wins has been since that Genesis win.

Okay, given the above, it’s clear that we’re talking about one of the premier golfers in the world, but that dang closing issue! In six of the 10 events included in this analysis, Schauffele’s worst scoring rounds came in the final round. Granted, in two of those instances, that final round score matched another of his previous rounds in the event, but just saying…

Scottie Scheffler- Instagram

Only twice in 10 events this season has Schauffele posted his best score in the final round, both in March and both on the Florida Swing. Those were at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook, where he tied for 25^th and 5^th respectively. In Arnie’s event, he shot a -2 on the final day, with his two-under coming on the first nine, with an even-par second. He finished even-par for the tourney, 15 shots behind winner Scottie Scheffler. At Innisbrook, he tied for low round on the final day with a six-under 65, his best closing round of the year. That final nine included four birdies and an eagle during his final eight holes after bogeying the 10^th. Despite that back-side 30, Xander finished four shots behind tourney champion, Peter Malnati. In comparison, in the nine tourneys (Pebble Beach left out) that I looked at for Scottie Scheffler’s numbers, Scheffler posted his best score of the tourney in the final round of events five of nine times (55.5% to Schauffele’s 20%).

If Schauffele’s scorched-earth second nine at Valspar wasn’t an aberration, I wouldn’t be talking about his ability to close…or rather to leave the door open. In addition to his final round scoring, the closing deficiency is also apparent when we examine his second-nine finishes as well. He scored worse on the second nine in 20 of the 40 rounds (50%) I examined, compared to the 15 times (37.5%) he scored better on the second nine, and the five times that he scored equally on the first and second nines.  Scheffler, on the other hand, scored worse on the second nine 12 of 36 (33.3%) rounds, better on his second nine 20 times (55/5%), and four times posted equal scores to par on the first and second nines.

Okay, okay, so comparing anyone to Scottie Scheffler this year is probably unfair, but when you’re trying to be the best you’ve got to beat the best, right? I’ve heard that cliché a time or two. And heck, they are No.s 1 and 2 in the FedEx Cup race, so who better than Scheffler to compare Schauffele to?

Rory McIlroy- Golf Week

I couldn’t tell you if it is pressure, lost focus, coincidence, or some combination of the three that’s responsible for Schauffele’s stumbles on second nines and in final rounds, but somehow Xander has to figure out how to get over the final-round hump? Many top golfers have a mental coach these days, and that seems to have helped a number of talented golfers (think Max Homa) climb the ranks to a position in line with their skills. I’m not sure how many besides Schauffele claim their dad as their mental guru, but perhaps Xander might consider getting a second mental coach; after all, it’s probably tough to fire your pops. Whatever he does, and however he does it, with Scheffler doing his thing and Rory McIlrory seemingly hitting his stride, Schauffele needs to do something with the PGA Championship–golf’s second major of the year–on the horizon.